The stock market is ripping higher today (well besides Boeing and Apple) on optimism on the FOMC report. The market thinks Janet Yellen will save it from its miserable year which has the S&P 500 down over 7%. The market is basing this optimism on hope. Hope is not in my vocabulary. I deal in reality. The reality says the market should not be going up today because the economy is headed into a recession. There are a few factors to consider. The first factor is that Janet Yellen has no idea how to analyze macro-data. The idea that she will learn how to read the metrics and become more dovish is the equivalent of hoping a kid with a failing math grade will get a perfect SAT score. This won't happen. Part of the problem is Janet Yellen looks at the unemployment rate. The Fed used to only be focused on inflation, but now it has moved towards focusing on unemployment. This is a political move because the Fed wants to help out partisan politicians. The reality is the labor market is a lagging economic indicator. If the Fed uses a lagging indicator to make policy decisions, then it will miss the entire cycle. This is precisely what happened. This is why the Fed tightened into a slowdown. I was correct in my prediction that the odds the Fed will raise rates would decrease as you can see from the current odds.